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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Tips - Storm to rain down at AAMI Park

jeremy-darke
02 Apr 2024
Jeremy Darke 02 Apr 2024
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  • The Melbourne Storm aims to avenge their Preliminary Final loss against Brisbane Broncos.
  • Storm's fullback, Ryan Papenhuyzen, plays a key role having an impressive track record against Broncos.
  • Home advantage and a strong line-up are expected to favor Melbourne Storm in the upcoming match.
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Ryan Papenhuyzen
Ryan Papenhuyzen looking slick in his return. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 5 2024 - Expert Prediction


Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Broncos renew their intense rivalry on Thursday. While the Broncos' victory in the Preliminary Final last season may have broken Melbourne's winning streak, it's hard to ignore the Storm's dominant record against the Broncos.

Melbourne had not lost to Brisbane since 2016 prior to their last defeat in the Preliminary Final. Looking back further, we see that the Broncos have only beaten Melbourne five times since the 2007 season.

Although the Broncos put up an impressive performance against the Cowboys on Friday night, it's important to note that playing in Melbourne on a Thursday night is a different ball game. The bookmakers have taken this into account, making Melbourne the 4.5-point favorites. However, shopping around can get you a better deal at 3.5.

The Storm has had a week off to prepare for this match, and we can expect Craig Bellamy's boys to be up for the challenge. They'll be looking to avenge their Preliminary Final defeat by taking on last year's grand finalists. The focus will likely be on stopping Brisbane's attack, which has struggled to score points in recent games.

Ryan Papenhuyzen, Melbourne's fullback, has been working his way back to his best form and has a great record against the Broncos. He even scored four tries in his last game against them in 2023. With the Storm's preparation and Papenhuyzen's form, it's going to be an exciting match.

  • Melbourne won all 4 of their Thursday night games last season, including both against Brisbane 
  • Melbourne has won their last 14 regular season games against Brisbane, including their last 7 games at AAMI Park.
  • Brisbane have scored less than 18 points in 6 of their past 7 games at AAMI Park.
  • Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored 6 tries in 3 games against Brisbane in his career.

Head to Head 


Brisbane emerged victorious in the most recent encounter between the two teams, claiming a commanding 26-0 victory at Suncorp Stadium in the Preliminary Final last season. 

But the Broncos have struggled against Melbourne in recent years, with their previous win against the Storm dating back to round 25, 2016.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Melbourne will be looking to get back on track this week after a 14-12 loss to the Knights, which was made worse by the absence of Jahrome Hughes due to suspension. 

They'll be hoping that the bye week has given them time to recover from some minor injuries that were plaguing the squad. 

The team started the season strong, with two impressive wins against top teams, the Warriors and Panthers, despite missing star player Cameron Munster due to a groin injury.

Melbourne Storm Team News


Melbourne Storm's lineup is back to full strength with the return of key players, including Cam Munster at five-eight and Jahrome Hughes at halfback, following a suspension. 

Although Christian Welch has recovered from a concussion, Joe Chan and Nelson Asofa-Solomona remain unavailable for selection.

Melbourne Storm Team List


1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Will Warbrick
3. Reimis Smith
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Tui Kamikamica
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eli Katoa
13. Trent Loiero

Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Christian Welch
16. Tepai Moeroa
17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves
18. Chris Lewis
19. Jack Howarth
20. Marion Seve
21. Jonah Pezet
22. Aaron Pene

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Brisbane put on an impressive display last Friday, dominating their Queensland rivals the Cowboys 38-12 in a wet weather match. 

Adam Reynolds was in top form, consistently launching high-flying kicks that proved difficult for Scott Drinkwater to handle. The Broncos played smart, taking advantage of their opportunities and denying the Cowboys any free chances.

With a 2-2 record, Brisbane is shaping up to be a strong contender this season, especially as their schedule eases up. 

Their ability to adapt to challenging weather conditions and capitalize on their chances has been a promising sign for the team's future success.

Brisbane Broncos Team News


Benjamin Te Kura will make his first appearance off the bench, replacing Xavier Willison, who will not be included in the 17-man squad.

Brisbane Broncos Team List


1. Tristan Sailor
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Selwyn Cobbo
5. Deine Mariner
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Corey Jensen
9. Billy Walters
10. Fletcher Baker
11. Jaiyden Hunt
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange
14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Benjamin Te Kura
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Corey Oates

Reserves
18. Martin Taupau
19. Jock Madden
20. Delouise Hoeter
21. Jordan Pereira
22. Blake Mozer

Verdict

Melbourne will capitalize on Brisbane's weakness, employing their week off to strategize and prepare for an assault. The Storm aims to limit the Broncos to fewer than 18 points while propelling Big Paps to score a try, resulting in a satisfying victory.

Best Bet1: Melbourne -3.5 Handicap/Line @5/6 at Betr - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Brisbane Under 17.5 Team Total @7/8 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer @23/17 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Ryan Papenhuyzen First Tryscorer @10/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Melbourne -3.5
Handicap/Line
@5/6 - 1 Unit
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Brisbane Under 17.5
Team Total
@7/8 - 2 Units
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04 Apr 2024

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos