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Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues Tips - Freo claim rare win over Carlton staying atop AFL ladder.

ryan-tucker
05 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 05 Apr 2024
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  • Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 4:20 PM (AEST)
  • Experts predict Fremantle Dockers to win against Carlton Blues in Round 4 of AFL 2024.
  • Dockers' impressive defence expected to help them win the match.
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Alex Pearce
Alex Pearce of the Dockers (Getty Images)

Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues Prediction


Fremantle will be put to the test this weekend against Carlton and will come out on top going 4 in a row to start the season. 
  • Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues, Round 4 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Fremantle Dockers Team News
  • Fremantle Dockers Team List
  • Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Carlton Blues Team News
  • Carlton Blues Team List
  • Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues AFL 2024 Round 4 FAQ’s

The Dockers have been the surprise packet so far this season, well on the positive side of things at least. Having won their first 3 games out of the blocks the typical crushing Fremantle defence has been on display. 

They head into this game against Carlton as Underdogs due to their recent head to head history against Carlton something that will no doubt be spoken about on the field with a few former Dockers in the Blues squad.

Carlton have also gone 3-0 to start the season but sit at 6th on the AFL ladder on percentage points. The Blues continued their 2023 late season trend of close wins to kick off this year edging out Brisbane by 1 point and the Tigers by 5 in their first two games. They were able to spread their wings against North last weekend but have still allowed their opponents to score over 80 points in all 3 games.

Both clubs have had wins over Brisbane and North Melbourne which can be good gauges to predict a possible outcome in this game. My prediction is that the Freo backline will focus on shutting down Curnow and McKay leaving the Blues trying to find other avenues to score.

  • Fremantle have conceded the least amount of points so far this season averaging 60 Opposition points per game
  • The Dockers are 5th in the league in Stoppage Clearances with 24.7 per game
  • Carlton are 13th in the AFL in Disposals averaging 354 per game
  • Caleb Serong is averaging 36.3 Disposals per game

Head to Head 


Carlton have dominated the Head to Head matchup since 2019 winning 6 of the last 7 games. They won the sole game played last season at Optus Stadium 98-45 covering the short line as 2.5 point Underdogs. 

Four of the last 7 games have gone Under the Game Total with only 2 of the previous 7 winning margins being more than 40 points. 

Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis


Fremantle have continued their crushing defensive tactics from recent years over their first three games this season. 

Captain Alex Pearce was dynamic in his play last weekend against Adelaide, completely shutting down the Crows attack. He will need to have a similar performance this week if they are to get on top of Carlton. 

Caleb Serong is leading the league in Disposals averaging 36.3 per game this season. His presence in the middle of the field has been invaluable for the Dockers especially during momentum swings within the contests. 

Scoring has been a problem in recent years for the Dockers but with their young guns getting more and more experience for every week that goes and Matt Taberner back on the field things are looking as positive as ever for the Purple Rain.

Fremantle Dockers Team News


Heath Chapman, Nathan O’Driscoll and Ethan Stanley will all return through the WAFL to get some game time before being able to be selected for the main team. Sam Sturt will be tested prior to the game and Karl Worner will need to pass concussion tests to be up for selection.

Sean Darcy will most likely return next week.

Fremantle Dockers Team List


B: J.Aish, A.Pearce - C, J.Draper
HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Clark
C: J.Sharp, N.Fyfe, M.Johnson
HF: M.Taberner, J.Treacy, S.Switkowski
F: M.Frederick, J.Amiss, M.Walters
FOLL: L.Jackson, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw

I/C: J.O’Meara, H.Young, B.Banfield, E.Hughes, T.Emmett
EMG: N.Erasmus, H.Davies, L.Reidy

Carlton Blues Form Analysis


The Blues would definitely have expected to be 2-1 at this stage of the season but the Opening Round win over the Lions is a great bonus for a team that is hitting their stride up forward. 

Carlton’s two pronged attack with Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have combined for 21 goals already this season and are one of the strongest scoring duos in the AFL.

The Backline though has had some troubles with Jacob Weitering out over their first two games their defence seemed to lack structure.

It looked more settled last week against the Kangaroos but they still allowed over 80 points to one of the league’s worst teams. If Fremantle are able to keep Carlton from scoring it will be of the utmost importance that the Blues backs are awake.

Carlton Blues Team News


Caleb Marchbank will miss this game with concussion protocol. David Cuningham, Jack Martin and Jesse Motlop have still to be confirmed out but expectations are they will all miss a few weeks. 

Sam Walsh is still out with a back injury.

Carlton Blues Team List


B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, A.Saad
HB: Z.Williams, M.McGovern, N.Newman
C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, B.Acres
HF: O.Fantasia, H.McKay, M.Kennedy
F: E.Hollands, C.Curnow, L.Fogarty
FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, G.Hewett

I/C: C.Durdin, M.Owies, M.Cottrell, J.Boyd, J.Carroll
EMG: J.Binns, M.Pittonet, L.Cowan

IN: B.Kemp
OUT: C.Marchbank (injured)

Verdict

The models are spitting out some interesting numbers in this game. Using both 2023 and 2024 numbers the Dockers are predicted to win by 10, using only this season’s numbers that margin extends to 20. 

In any case it is less than 39 so the best bet is a Freo 1-39 winning margin. This game has the lowest total of the round at 165 but I still see it going Under due to the tightening up of both teams’ defence.
Best Bet1: Fremantle 1-39 Winning Margin @28/17 at Boombet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 165.5 Game Total @8/9 at PlayUP - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Caleb Serong 30+ Disposals @7/8 at Elitebet - 1 Unit
Fremantle 1-39
Winning Margin
@28/17 - 2 Units
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Under 165.5
Game Total
@8/9 - 1 Unit
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Caleb Serong 30+
Disposals
@7/8 - 1 Unit
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06 Apr 2024

Fremantle v Carlton